All 15 Discard Options Ranked by Net Expected Value
Hand Avg calculates the exact arithmetic mean across every one of the 46 unseen cut cards left in the deck. Est. Crib estimates how many points your 2-card throw adds to the dealer's crib (added to Net EV on your deal, subtracted on your opponent's deal).
| Rank | Keep (4 Cards) | Throw (2 Cards) | Net EV | Hand Avg | Est. Crib | Min–Max (High Roll) |
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Top Cribbage Discard Rules Every Winner Follows
Never Break a Sure Crib Without Cause—Except to Starve Opponent
- Never throw a 5 into an opponent's crib unless forced—a 5 paired with any card averages roughly 5.5 to 8.8 points for your opponent.
- Best defensive discards (opponent's crib): Wide high cards that cannot connect runs or easily make 15s, such as K-9, K-10, Q-9, or K-A off-suit.
- Best offensive discards (your crib): Throw 5-5, 2-3, 7-8, or 5-J whenever your kept 4-card hand retains solid run or fifteen value.
Board Position Overrides Pure Average EV Late in the Game
In early holes (0–70), play pure Net EV shown in row #1 above. Near hole 105+, stop maximizing expected value and ask: Am I counting first (Pone) or second (Dealer)? If you count first at hole 114, keep the hand with the highest guaranteed Min score and pegging versatility rather than a risky cut-dependent flush. Need to verify exact hand scores? Use the Hand Score Calculator or test your instinct against the Master bot in Play Cribbage.